#AFRICA 2016: ECONOMISTS/ANALYSTS LOOK INTO A CRYSTAL BALL AND SEE BRIGHT POTENTIALS IN A BLEAK YEAR FOR NIGERIA!
FOUR RENOWNED 'EGG-HEAD' EXPERTS ON AFRICAN AFFAIRS: PATRICK SMITH, CHIEF EDITOR OF THE AFRICAN REPORT AND EDITOR OF AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL; RAZIA KHAN, HEAD OF AFRICAN RESEARCH, STANDARD CHARTERED; FATIMAH KELLEHER INTERNATIONAL WOMEN'S RIGHTS AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT CONSULTANT AND DELE MEJI FATTUNLA, HEAD OF COMMUNICATIONS AND EDITOR OF WHAT'S ON AFRICA LOOK AT WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THE WORLD'S HOTTEST CONTINENT. BODE IN FLIGHT'S BODE AYODELE WHO WAS IN ATTENDANCE AT THE SOAS HOSTED GATHERING, TAKES A LOOK AT WHAT THEY HAD TO SAY REGARDING NIGERIA IN THE NEW YEAR.
Their joint assignment was to look into what the future has in store for Africa; and no, we are not referring to any wild guessing stuff! These are Economist/analysts, who would rely on data and past economic trends to predict what the future portends; and for Nigeria, the consensus was that of a sour but possible, sweet year ahead.
The event was the Royal African Society (RAS) organised Africa 2016:
Prospects and Forecast gathering held at the Brunei Gallery Lecture Theatre (BGLT) SOAS, Wednesday, January 13, 2016.
Picture Credit: BODE in Flight!
Zeinab Badwai - President of RAS and one of the most knowledgeable journalist on African matters on this part of the divide, set the agenda for the panellists with her opening remarks. BBC’s World Service Audrey Brown chaired the aftermath Question and Answer session; while those called upon to do the job itself were Patrick Smith, Chief Editor of the African Report and Editor of Africa Confidential; Razia Khan, Head of African Research, Standard Chartered; Fatimah Kelleher International Women's Rights and Social Development Consultant and Dele Meji Fattunla, Head of Communications and Editor of What's On Africa.
Patrick Smith, setting the ball in motion amongst the four invited experts, sees Nigeria like other oil producing states contesting with the problem of shrinking budgets but additionally having to grapple with protests due to unhappy South East Nigerians (on the issue of misrepresentation in government) and militant arisings on one hand and social/ main stream media protest articles on the other.
He was all praises for the President’s economic team of which he said the latter took his time to select; describing Babatunde Fashola, Minister of Power, Housing and Works; Kayode Fayemi, Minister of Social Minerals and his ‘personal friend’, Enyinnaya Okecukwu Enelema as 'good choices'!
Smith's preparation for the task, the in-depth nature of his analysis and detailed knowledge of his subject left none in doubt! He noted that President's Buhari's herculean task would be the turning around of the civil service and educational sector (a sector he does not seem to have earmarked much for); however, positing that the lack of adequate financial resources could be his bane. He pointed out how at £30 dollars per barrel at current prices, oil producing countries were experiencing the lowest oil prices in fifteen years; leaving the Nigerian Economic Team with fewer options - mainly being the slashing of revenue leakages and the reduction of recurrent expenditure - to generate more money.
He added that the issue of the lack of adequate security continued to stare the former military leader in the face as, as he put it, despite: 'Boko Haram Militants being pushed out of their territory, they continued to attack at will'!
In all Patrick concludes Nigeria's chances of making 2016 a successful year lies solely within the countries own borders!
2016 IS AN IMPORTANT YEAR FOR NIGERIA. REAL PERFORMANCE MOMENTUM COULD IMPROVE NIGERIA WITH IMPROVEMENT IN OIL PRICES, CLAIMS RAZIA
Razia Khan, continuing from where Smith had stopped, said the big opportunity for Nigeria would be to improve performance wise in managing the economy and to see overall advancement and improvement gain momentum when the prices of oil pick up again.
She warned that the slowdown in China's economy would have its negative ripple effects on the economy; referring to the negative impact on the slump in China's commodity prices.
Nigeria has served as the third largest trade partner of China while China serves as the largest trade partner Nigeria has. The slump in commodity prices for the Asian country has occasioned its economic slowdown. This, however, could provide the opportunity for Nigeria to look inwards seeking for the much-desired industrialisation and internal transformation, she pointed out.
'Nothing is certain for Nigeria. A lot depends on the transformation momentum'!
'People are wondering if the African growth story is a reality. This is important
'Many people have looked at the economy of Nigeria. And for too long this is an economy not performing to its potential because it had too many of the downsides associated with being an oil-dependent economy'.
'Following the rebasing as we know, oil is only 10% of the countries GDP. But it is important because of the reliance on oil for 96% of foreign exchange earnings. Nevertheless, the amount to which it contributes to budget revenue has been cut down severely'.
IMPORTANT YEAR FOR NIGERIA
'This is an important year for Nigeria. If we see real reform momentum, Nigeria will be in a stronger position when oil prices eventually correct again. But if we see, perhaps a lack of a policy momentum. If we see the freezing of everything. The freezing of the exchange rate. Trying to control demand. Trying to cut import demand in an economy that should be growing much faster, Nigeria will probably lose out and not see the benefits of this time and not see the kind of adjustments that is needed'; she warned.
2016 A YEAR OF POSITIONING AND DELIBERATION ON HOW TO FUND THE UNITED NATIONS (UN) SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS, DECLARES FATIMAH
Fatimah Kelleher, a Women's Rights and International Social Development consultant, on her own part, sees 2016 as the year Nigeria, among other African countries, should position herself to fund the 17 sustainable Development Goals (SGD's) set out last year by the United Nations.
She noted, that the African Union (AU) has made 2016 another year for focusing on Women Human Rights, makes this a lot easier.
The SGD's were outlined by the United Nations last year to serve as a follow-up to the organisation's Millennium Development Goals (MDG's) which were considered 'too narrow and were criticised for overlooking issues such as gender inequality', reports The Guardian.
Further emphasising the need to focus on women developmental issues Kelleher pointed out that 80% of productivity in Agriculture (an area Nigeria has pledged to transform into a larger revenue generation source following the slump in oil prices) in African countries is from women. She commended the country's ban of Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) alongside The Gambia, and noted the increase in telephony which would surely include rural women.
However, she expressed dismay that the required education on how to use such was not spreading fast enough in the country.
 Design by ICP; Information source: The Guardian
'Mobile banking a dependent on telephony has become the narrative in Nigeria and is moving fast. The disconnect, however, is the required education to take it to the less developed villages. This is not growing that fast' she bemoaned!
Kelleher said that in 2016 for most women in a place like Nigeria much may not really change. She, however, admitted that those who run NGO's and are pushing the women agenda are likely to see changes as more, including the Government and foreign aid donors, will seek to use their platforms towards achieving the SDG's ahead of the 15-year deadline (to be achieved by 2030) given by the UN.
NIGERIAN AUTHORS TO DOMINATE LITERATURE NARRATIVE IN 2016 SAYS DELE MEJI FATUNLA
Stating that the past year - indeed, the entire decade - has been very fruitful for African countries; including Nigeria, for culture and creatives, Dele said it was a trend he hopes and believes will continue.
He noticed that the year will see an increase in the number of published vernacular books in languages of African countries; which, of course, will include Nigeria.
He explained that there would be an increased effort to push literature on sex and desires. He also envisages a push of borders on issues relating to the LGBT alongside the exploration of Human Rights.
'I expect 2016 to be another good year for African film, Literature and Art, especially for videos on demand...But for consumers to stream or download movies telecoms firms will have to increase connection speeds.', he said citing the extension of U.S based Netflix services to an extra 130 countries embracing the 54 African Nations including Nigeria as a positive development.
Dele informed that the agreement by Netflix to make Mo Abudu's (Executive Producer) Fifty (directed by Niyi Bamidele) available to its viewers from late last/the beginning of this year will further help drive African originated content on an international level in the industry. The Launching of Netflix and Chili by Telecommunication outfit, Etisalat, Dele further enthused, can only the more make this all a big reality.
Noting that the Nigerian publishing house Cassava Republic will be launching in the United Kingdom this year, Dele concluded that Nigerian authors would dominate the literature narrative in the year. Elsewhere, on his blog: What's On Africa as a follow-up to the RAS event, he listed seven Nigerian authored books ( including Elnathan John's Born on A Tuesday, published by Cassava Publishers, and Abubakar Ibrahim's Season of Crimson Blossoms) out of fourteen African literature works to look out for in the new year.
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, with oil prices per barrel staying away from the predicted $38 dollar at the end of last year (and probably even the $32 per barrel budget benchmark) to less than $30 within the third week of January, success in the Nigerian economy for the year depends largely on positive government policies that will tap into the countries potentials away from a previous dependency on oil.
'Nigeria of today is different from the Nigeria of 1980's', It was pointed out during the Q&A session and, although, not at risk of falling into an external debt trap' as in the past, the kind of policies designed by the government to move ahead within the year will determine how the year pans out.
A Foreign exchange policy issued by the Central Bank recently on the backdrop of falling external reserves will see the regulatory body halt the sale of U.S dollars to forex Bureaus. Furthermore, local banks are now allowed to accept dollar deposits (Africa In Focus/ Brooking Institution).
It is, indeed, decisions like this, the Royal African Society assembled experts proffered, that will make or mar Nigeria in 2016!
Anthony Olabode Ayodele is a United Kingdom based Public Relations Practitioner and member of the Chartered Institute of Public Relations (MCIPR) and a ADBL Certified Digital Marketer. He is the Founder and CEO of PR Start-Up: Ideas, Concepts and Products (ICP). He may be contacted via 07587584922 or email: bodeayo67@yahoo.co.uk.
Picture Credits|:
2nd image: Patrick Smith at the SOAS Rostrum during the RAS Event Source: (#RAS Events)
3rd Image: African Woman standing in the middle of a crowd, being a shot of the screen at the RAS Event. Source: (#RAS Events)
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