BUILDING A NATION APPLYING ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES USING NIGERIA AND OTHER COUNTRIES AS CASE STUDIES
From Poverty to Prosperity: Understanding Economic Development
By Anthony Olabode Ayodele (Chart.PR, MCIPR, FIIM, IDM CPD Award 2017 & 3018)
Being contributions and Final Assignment towards completion of the course: From Poverty to Prosperity: Understanding Economic Development as led by Professor Paul Collier of The Oxford University Blavatnik School of Government towards the completion of the Oxford University OxfordX/Edx From Poverty to Prosperity: Understanding Economic Development course.
Contents
INTRODUCTION
Oxford University's Professor Paul Collier is one of the best Global minds on Economics. This paper is a collection of my contributions and Final Assignment for Oxford University’s OxfordX From Poverty to Prosperity: Understanding Economic Development Course led by him.
As a Professor of Economics and Public Policy of the Blavatnik School of Government, he ranks high among experts as it relates to economics on Africa. His numerous publications, articles and books on the continent attests to this. Likewise, his numerous appointments on the subject which include serving as the former senior advisor to Tony Blair’s Commission on Africa, and was Director of the Development Research group at the World Bank for five years
The course examines the six steps process a society must go through to experience economic development; being the six stages from an Anarchy to a Centralised/Inclusive state. It reveals that no state experiences economic development by accident and that the latter is a pre-determined, step by step procedure.
The course also explains that there are situations where a state may not move to the next stage of the transformation process and provides the reasons why this is so.
Participants will additionally learn about the social factors required for economic development, and how one can use the forging of the right identities, norms, and narratives to shape and put on course individuals that make up a society or the society itself, to develop an economy.
Ii enlightens on the issue of power and identities in a society and the need to forge an alignment between both for economic development to occur. Likewise, what happens when power and identity are misaligned and how one can re-align them.
Further, the course addresses the psychology of a society requires and the need to know how people think and see the world and that people behaviour depends upon peer esteem (how others think of them) and self-esteem (how they think of themselves).
AS IT RELATES TO PUBLIC RELATIONS
As PR Practitioner knows one needs his target audience to see things, think and talk (narrate) in a manner that enhances his objective (or in other words get people to feel and talk right about his client, product or campaign) the course makes it clear that whoever is driving economic development needs to influence the right self-esteem, peer esteem, values, norms and identities of those in the target audience to fulfil pre-determined goals.
It indicates the need to understand the motivation of people is the essence of the Social Psychology which is relevant to Economic Development, sales and of course, Public Relations.
As a PR Practitioner who handles briefs related to societies (presently I am on my communities TMO board) my application of the knowledge of this course will enable me look at the stage the society in question is as it relates to the six stages from Anarchy to a Centralised/or Inclusive State and work towards effecting changes as taught where required.
To better understand the society, as a PR Practitioner, I will ask and answer questions that this course has equipped me with such as why the society is where it is (on the six-step continuum) and or why it has not moved to the next stage.
This will enable me to understand the kind of norms, values and identity those within the society have, and help me to determine their needs as it relates my strategic campaign for it to succeed.
With this knowledge I will incorporate this into my formative research report to enable myself and client have a better understanding of the society being dealt with in the context of the campaign to be embarked on.
Applying my knowledge and understanding of the Nudge Theory, having incorporated the above into my formative research report, I can use the theory to reshape identities and values within the campaign or in a pre-campaign.
For instance, in a society where majority identify themselves as irresponsible due to low education and lack of exposure and likewise, identify recycling as an act only for responsible people, I will, with what I have learnt in this course identify the self-esteem, orientation and values required to change for a campaign to encourage recycling to have any chance of working.
My deeper understanding of the society as a result of this course will position me better as a Practitioner that can handle PR as it relates to societal matters.
Ayodele, June 2018
ARE NATURAL RESOURCES A CURSE OR BLESSING
The narrative that Natural Resources are a curse to a nation sends the wrong signals to potential leaders.
Research that suggest nations blessed with Natural Resources one way or the other experience an economic dip/recession (aside the idea that Natural Resources are a curse) make the rounds in the light of evidence that sound leadership and application of management principles is the true panacea to this menace.
For instance, an article in the Economist on comments by IMF's Subramanian Arvind notes that 'economic factors like the Dutch Disease and corruption alone do not explain the oil curse. He maintains that the problem is weak institutions'.
Economist, Paul Collier of Oxford, notes weak institutions are a function of poor leadership. He states that the transformation of ideas into sound Domestic public policy requires: 'rules, institutions, Informed Citizenry and Authorising Environment'.
Further, in the first MOOC Q&A session held on June 13th, 2018 for this this course, Paul Collier talks about how China saved up to fifty percent of rent income using national savings to accent out of poverty. This is an example of good leadership and management that countries with natural resources or facing the 'resource curse' can follow.
Mostly, as an analyst, Olu Fasan, states, theories on the issue point to the absence of key management and leadership principles such as the four stages required for economic development such as Rules, Institutions, Informed Citizenry and an Authorising Environment.
This further suggests that bad management and poor leadership is the main issue; it has little or nothing to do with the natural resource itself.
The steps required to ascend from Poverty to Prosperity with the utilisation of the Natural Resources of a country still require the right leaders/managers for execution.
However, on the flip side of this argument, there's no doubt Natural Resources have their own limits, with regards developing a nation.
In fact a study conducted by Paul Collier in a paper titled: Is Aid Oil? An analysis of whether Africa can absorb more aid which compares the impact of Rents from Natural Resources to Foreign Aid, it is pointed out:
Collier's study even goes on further to negate or significantly reduce the governance problem by stating: 'Further, around a third of Africa has sufficiently large resource rents for the governance problems generated by these rents to be critical'.
Arguments such as the issue of the Dutch disease: 'the... relationship between the increase in the economic development of a specific sector... and a decline in other sectors' and the adverse effect resource rents are said to have upon governance have been put forth in the paper to justify this position.
Despite the amount of theoretical justification for human measures such as effective checks and balances (also put forth in Paul's paper) and the right application of management principles - it is further established in the paper that Aid - the other side of the coin to natural resources - has its own Diminishing Returns. The question is do rents from natural resources also have the same effect (diminishing returns); a question the paper doesn't answer.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT VIA ‘INVESTING IN INVESTING’!
A sound reinvestment policy is what Professor Collier describes as 'investing in investing'.
In one instance he gave an example of how China saved 50% of earnings to invest in infrastructure.
Professor Collier also notes that the Fragility Commission Report released recently points out that Fragile states should introduce checks and balances to ensure earnings and investments are properly managed.
He explains further in the lecture that states where such is not present (Fragile States) should put the enabling Rules, Institutions, informed citizens and Authorising Environment in place.
Furthermore, in Cities that Work, Ed Glaeser of Harvard University on Five Lessons For Urban Cities states 'getting these cities right maybe the most important vocation of the 21st century'. He notes infrastructure 'is so easy to get wrong' and cited an example in New York in 1982 where it wasn't until 'rules and penalties were imposed that a sanitary control problem was solved'.
On the issue of integrity, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Report, 2009: 'Governments should normally be able to generate large revenues from resource-based development so that public services can readily be finance, but again, the availability of government funds is not a guarantee for improved public services'.
The underpinning of integrity in the application of all Government Policies is one's best bet to give each project a chance of working right.
THE NORWEGIAN OIL POLICY MANAGEMENT CASE STUDY!
Still on the issue of Natural Resources and Nation building, whether a natural resource turns out to be a curse or a blessing, depends upon the policies designed to manage it.
It could turn out to be a blessing if managed properly.
Paul Collier notes that a successful policy management will comprise of four stages being Design, Select, Implementation and Evaluation (see MOOC Q&A with Paul Collier, From poverty to prosperity).
An example of a country that followed these stages and reaped the blessings of its natural resource is Norway.
Writing for The Globe and Mail, ESTHER HSIEH, in an article published on May 16, 2013 (updated May 11th this year) titled What Norway did with its oil and we didn’t states:
'When oil was discovered in the Norwegian continental shelf in 1969, Norway was very aware of the finite nature of petroleum and didn't waste any time legislating policies to manage the new-found resource in a way that would give Norwegians long-term wealth, benefit their entire society and make them competitive beyond just a commodities exporter'.
Further, the article notes: 'Before oil was discovered, the Act of 21 June 1963 was already in place for managing the Norwegian continental shelf'.
ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT AND NIGERIAPOWER AND IDENTITY
In the past power operated at the National level (eg Military Dictatorship) in Nigeria, with identity at the sub-national level of states, religion and ethnic divisions.
Attempts to shift power to the sub-national level have seen former Coordinating Minister of Nigeria, Ngozi Okonjo Iweala's in her newly released book: Fighting Corruption, state: 'Nigeria's group of 36 governors is powerful...'. 'Governors control 48 percent of Federation revenues allocated to the states and local governments'.
She writes: 'Nigeria's deep decentralisation means the Governors have tremendous freedom (power) and little accountability in the use of monies under their control’. Oxford University Economist, Professor Collier’s notes however though decentralisation is a solution to misalignment, checks and balances are also necessary.
Reflecting the impact of the misalignment of power and identity A former aide to President Goodluck Jonathan, Reno Omikro, in an article titled: 'Nigeria: Amaechi Should Learn to Always Keep Quiet' (2017) identified in-house fighting between Governors under the Nigerian Governors Forum (led by Gov Amaechi of Rivers State) and the President, over the fate of the Excess Crude Account (ECA).
Just as Paul Collier in A Q&A session on June 13th, notes Tanzania former President, Julius Nyerere, imposed a single language on the country, Nigeria, in similar fashion, has sought to adopt pidgin English and use Sports to forge a National Identity.
Nigerian Writer Ngozi Chimamanda notes 'Single Story' narratives need to be corrected as foreigners see Nigerians as divided; distorting attempts to forge a national identity!
The noted misalignment sees successive government leaders from different ethnic divides favouring their kinsmen and undoing achievements of their successors coupled with religious squabbles.
Power Sharing and quota system, again, similar to Nyerere’s solutions in Tanzania, was introduced to check this.
In all Nigeria Leaders should shun the Zero-Sum Game strategy and follow Nyerere’s example of forging a national identity with common interests.
IS NIGERIA A CENTRALISED OR INCLUSIVE STATE?
Professor Collier notes A centralised state, though delivering economic development, is focused on military spending in a ‘thug's’ favour. In an inclusive state the benefits are for everyone (see his lecture 1 of 10 on inclusive states).
Nigeria progressed from a centralised state (under former dictator Gen Abacha) to a non-centralised but inclusive state through the democratic vote.
In a paper: 'The Other Nigeria' (2014) Professor Collier et al note: ‘Nigeria progressed towards stable, inclusive economic growth'.
Contextually, Aliyu Idris et al in the Paper: ('Public Private Partnership in Nigeria and Improvement in Service Delivery: An appraisal) notes the introduction of the Public Private Partnership Initiative in Nigeria saw to the involvement of the Public in national/state procurement and infrastructural development.
Furthermore, moving from the civil war of 1967 to ‘protests of inclusivity’ for revalidation of the 1993 June 12 election forced a shift from elite patronage to a redistribution system; progressing along the six steps from Anarchy to Centralised state.
Through this means. Nigeria gradually transformed ideas into domestic and international policies, introducing: 'Rules, institutions, informed citizens and authorising environment'.
Hence a 'Budget Monitoring and Price Intelligence' unit headed by former Minister, Oby Ezekwesili, who was also the Chairperson of the 'Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI)' oversaw the 'national implementation of the global standards and principles of transparency in the oil, gas and mining sector' with results published.
However, as stated by Collier’s student, Olu Fasan, in an article: 'Nigeria is a fragile state', Nigeria has the characteristics of a fragile state including: ’weak capacity for essential functions’ and exposure to ‘shocks with little resilience'.
To escape the Fragility Trap’ Collier’s notes recommend states follow China’s example of savings and to ‘invest in investing’!
The foregoing suggests Nigeria, though improved, is yet to fully make the ascent from poverty to prosperity.
To illustrate further the democratic election in Nigeria which removed the then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan saw Nigeria qualify as an inclusive state as the masses were able to forge their will via an election.
It is not centralised however as there is no monopoly of violence by a single entity/power.
Even the states being governed by different parties and political interests from region to region and state to state add to the inclusive but non-centralised nature of Nigeria.
From the lessons this is could clearly be a case of a country that comes out of autocratic rule seeking inclusiveness via elections.
Paul Collier cites Nigeria as an example. Those who know Nigeria know it has for a good part of its history been Centralised but not Inclusive.
Protests and the cry for elections and freedom from military rule (Centralised) saw the emergence of a Civilian Government with less power but a nation with a better Democratic Structure.
Hence, administrations after the last Nigeria military dictator (Major General Sani Abacha) such as under President Goodluck Jonathan and an elected President Mohammed Buhari have had less centralised power in a more inclusive (democratic) state.
Desired peace is the incentive for the transition from a Centralised to an Inclusive state otherwise the leaders will face the fate of 'Ceausescu on the balcony in the square in Bucharest' as stated in lesson seven who lost his life because he couldn't think fast enough to offer inclusive (democracy) to his subjects.
LEVEL OF CONNECTIVITY, TRANSPORT AND BUILDING TECHNOLOGY IN NIGERIA’S CAPITAL CITY
Abuja, the capital city of Nigeria has low connectivity. It's dominant transport technology is at the lowest end of the spectrum of the Quanta of Technology of Transport (QOTT) from walking to cars (see attached diagram).
Pointing out the city’s congested road networks, Abubakar Adamu, in a paper titled: 'Transportation For Abuja Nigeria Capital' states: 'Abuja runs a chaotic transport system...there is no comprehensive transport-planning programme…'.
This resulted to a shortfall of houses as the population outgrew occupied accommodation; resulting to skyrocketing housing prices.
The 'increase in transport technology' in the city has not been 'in alignment' with the rapid density increase.
From the foregoing we can see Abuja is a Low Connectivity, High Density city. It started off as High Connectivity, Low Density with good road connection and a low population, but rapid growth has seen that change.
In the early 90's Abuja with a population of around 25,000 had firms spread out like Los Angeles (low density but high
Now the Firms are big but clustered in the centre and shops are scattered all over without reflecting any particular, planning or design.
This is the situation of a low connectivity (due to congestion and low level QoTT ) and High density (without adequate forward planning) city.
OPEC's Oil Production decision taken this week on June 22nd in Austria moves power further away from certain countries with true natural resource wealth like Nigeria?
Paul Collier in a ted ex talk: 'How the bottom billion can harness the resource boom' suggest that Africa's Square Mile based on research could be six time richer than other parts of the world but produces less rent revenue due to poor management, leadership poor infrastructure and below capacity exploration.
Coupled with these, insurgency and security issues have seen the country produce fluctuating volumes, far less than its 2.5 million barrels per day oil production capacity, for years.
This has seen OPEC in this week’s announcement rather than give production figures to all its 14-member countries - though announcing plans to increase production – express then instead that countries like Saudi Arabia will provide the shortfall for the 1 million bpd increase.
It was noted was pointed out that Venezuela, Nigeria and Libya cannot produce up to capacity.
In fact one chart produced in 2016 listing OPEC member countries indicating their current production levels and whether they can increase production or not conspicuously has Libya and Nigeria missing; probably reflecting an OPEC 12 instead of 14 member countries.
Even the OPEC Press Release issue after the event on its outcome uses the tag: OPEC-12. This is even as Congo saw its application to join OPEC approved, to bring the body’s member nations to 15.
In the light of the above it is uncertain Nigeria will be able to take advantage of the OPEC production increase.
NIGERIA INSTABILITY AND THE SIX STEPS FROM ANARCHY TO A CENTRALISED STATE
Regarding the six steps from Anarchy to a Centralised State one can use it as a benchmark to determine the progress of a state.
Using Nigeria as a case study one will quickly note that instability and inconsistency in power has seen successive governments repeat the violent stages without maintaining the progress of past administrations.
For instance, the Terrorist group, Boko Haram, grew and flourished under President Goodluck Jonathan's administration. However, his successor, General Mohammed Buhari who came from a different party and with a different political ideology - though succeeding in making Boko Haram less of a menace, saw his tenure associated with attacks on oil producing areas; leading to the destruction of oil rigs, then later on attacks by Fulani Herdsmen which are equally as damaging.
Both administrations have been accused of sponsoring and permitting a leakage that has fuelled these attacks of violence. They cannot be totally exonerated since they signed an undertaking when they assumed power, to provided adequate security for the nation.
it is interesting to note that the violence and havoc wrecked under each regime is notably not from the region (North followed by the South West/West) each leader in power originates from.
Further assessment of various regions and territories reveal that one can categorise them based on the stage they are in, among the six stages. from anarchy to a centralised state.
One can also determine. why they haven't progressed to the next stage if that is the case. by looking for answers.
Wars have decreased notably in regions that have transformed through these outlined stages (like in Britain) but for regions that are just developing, violence due to wars (like in Somalia) is still a factor.
The steps can be found to have been played out in Modern England if you examine its history.
Prof Collier’s notes on the issue indicate notably, the Romans abandoned Scotland because they concluded that the unfavourable weather. alongside other factors. made it non-productive to maintain a big enough army to dominate Scotland. Also. the Romans withdrew their troops as the person manning Britain set his sight on a bigger prize (throwing the country into a state of disorder).
Prof Collier notes that Britain progressed from Anarchy to a centralised state when William the Conquer introduced a tax system, seeing England further develop and transform moving from one stage through to another of the six stages of anarchy to a centralised state.
NARRATIVES AND IDENTITIES
The success of a nation is largely dependent upon successfully forging the right Identity and not the other way round.
For instance, the hosting of a global sporting event could be used to forge a National Identity.
But of course, as Sir Paul Collier put it the issue of inadequate checks and balances; a self-centred redistributive (redistribution) system resultant from elite patronage; and the dreaded monster of abuse of power derived from the event (e.g. a statement such as: 'my administration hosted the most successful international sporting event in the history of our country. We can live a larger than life, life '). is there to contend with.
In Identity Economics How Our Identities Shape Our Work, Wages, and Well-Being by George A. Akerlof & Rachel E. Kranton the authors note: Thus people's identity--their conception of who they are, and of who they choose to be--may be the most important factor affecting their economic lives'.
In other words, these narratives must be pre-determined, packaged and sold to the outside world. You can’t risk allowing them develop 'naturally' without seeking to influence what people feel about you as a nation or people.
As mentioned earlier. Nigerian famous writer, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, speaking under the topic: The danger of a single storypoints out how distorted the views of foreigners are, forging erroneous notions with single story narratives, about people they don't know.
What needs to be added to this is that it is responsibility of a people to forge the right identity about themselves so that they won't be misconstrued due to such 'single stories' doing the rounds about them.
Aside examples given in her speech other instances of erroneous 'single story' narratives about Nigerians include: Igbo's are industrious, and Yoruba's are lazy; Another is that Hausa's mismanage or, on the flip side. are the 'most competent', to rule the country.
The idea that Nigeria is a divided nation is another single-story narrative that forging a national identity could change.
Forging a powerful national identity will see Nigerians shake off these wrong notions where they are encountered.
THE DUTCH DISEASE VERSUS THE RESOURCE CURSE: WHICH ONE SHOULD A 'BOTTOM BILLION' OR FRAGILE STATE BE MOST WARY OF?
The issues that have hindered economic development, the reasons behind them and the panacea for same are addressed in the answer to this question.
Prof. Collier notes 'Dutch Disease' and 'Resource Curse' as twin Devils to Economic Development. What steps can be taken to ensure good governance via Best Practice and Best Fit Principles that deal with both.
How do they both impact the 'Bottom Billion' and/or Fragile states (both coined by Prof. Collier to describe mainly third world underdeveloped states) and how the later can best cope/deal with the menace.
Finally, is there any relationship between the two? In other words, would the 'Resource Curse' - a drop in Economic Development on the Long Term Run after a Short Term Run of Economic Success due to Natural Resource extraction and revenue accrued from rent - automatically lead to the 'Dutch Disease' - An improvement in the economic development of one area of the country at the expense of another.
Paul Collier in his work on the Bottom Billion notes: 'if you've got good enough governance there is no resource boom. You go up in the short term and then you go up even more in the long term. The resource curse is entirely confined to countries below a threshold of governance'!
Elsewhere, he gives an example of China as a country which 'invests in investing’; saving revenue accrued wisely for investment in infracstructure.
From these submissions good governance seems to be the only sound panacea for both menaces.
DOMESTIC POLICIES
Instability has been described as the bane of development in Africa. However, Nyerere's example in Tanzania (given elsewhere in the course material) indicates that a forward-thinking leader could entrench policies that could be helpful to and built upon by successive governments. An effective tax system could as well be a consideration.
NYERERE’S LEGACY AND WHY HIS SUCCESS IS NOT WIDELY COPIED IN AFRICA
One may argue that Julius Nyerere's political and educational background alongside his exposure gave him a slight edge over other African leaders, leading to the implementation of the sound and far-reaching policies he came up with.
As A matter of fact, most of the pioneer African leaders like him (for instance Nigeria's late Obafemi Awolowo) were great visionary leaders who seemed to have been better than their successors.
On why Nyerere’s approach isn't adapted by all other African leaders (Nigeria seems to be an exception as most national policy ideas of the former Tanzanian leader have been implemented though arguably, in some cases unsuccessfully due to poor implementation, by the West African state) one may say a poor attitude to benchmarking ideas from other leaders and the unwillingness to give credit for ideas taken elsewhere would be largely responsible for that.
FOREIGN AID
Prof Colliers notes state Foreign Aid help in the following three areas:
- Implement urbanisation which is expensive.
- Finance the generation of geological information (data) and
- Helps connectivity between firms to firms and poor countries within the globe
The above aid economic development.
On the issue of urbanisation and retrofitting cities should be planned and developed before urbanisation and high destiny sets in. Those in-charge of Policy Management should not wait till when it is fully developed or congested to retrofit.
An example is seen in Nigeria when its most industrialised city and one time/former capital, Lagos State, under the administration of its First civilian governor of Lagos State, Alhaji Lateef Jakande, who sought to build a tram metro line.
The project was initiated by the forward thing Governor to solve the traffic problem in the metropolis in 1983.
However the Central Government of the day led by General Mohammed Buhari (who was a military ruler then but returned to power again later as a Civilian President and presently rules the country) felt the 100m loan then required for the project was too much, hence he cancelled it.
Subsequently, when the project was re-visited the estimated cost had sky-rocketed. It was indicated that the costing was high because the city had not been planned with such grand projects in mind.
Sir Paul Collier talks of a Four step/stage process for Policy Management that could be followed to ensure policy leaders do not always rely on last minute retrofitting approaches to development.
The stages are Design, Select, Implementation and Evaluation as discussed in a Q&A session in a video: MOOC Q&A with Paul Collier, From poverty to prosperity.
Using this four-stage process will ensure cities are well-designed and approached as a project (with the right mix of infracstructure and transport technology selected) before implementation.
This will check the need to retrofit after an urban city has already been developed and congested. An example is Freetown of Serria Leone. a city designed for 35,000 but now congested with over 1m people.
PIONEER INVESTMENT
The government could also organise a competition asking entrepreneurs to come forth with ideas and give financial prizes or grants to the winners. They could encourage the private sector to do same as well in a way very much similar to what Sir Richard Branson did with his Voom Pitch for Entrepreneurs project.
The government needs to develop the talent in the country especially amongst the youth who have the competencies to come up with pioneer investment ideas and are encouraged to do so because the financial muscle has been provide and the risk burden has been shouldered by the authorities.
An example is seen in Nigeria where the former Coordinating Minister of the Economy and Minister of Finance, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, introduced a scheme called Youth Enterprise with Innovation in Nigeria YouWiN under the Ministry of Finance of the Nigerian Federal Government
FRANCE AND MARCON
French President Emmanuel Macron is an example of a visionary leader who plans and thinks long term and seeks to address dysfunctional identities by forging a common interest identity.
Some argue there’s a trickle-down effect and the possible loss of bearings of Marcon's planned approach to national development. But considering that he is introducing such far-reaching plans he may have his sight set on leaving a legacy that will only yield positive outcomes on a long-term basis.
The example of Julius Nyerere of Tanzania as given in the study and referenced from the paper: 'Tribe or Nation? Nation-Building and Public Goods in Kenya versus Tanzania' authored by Edward Miguel, of the University of California at Berkeley comes to mind. His similar structural adjusting national reforms did not have an immediate positive impact on the country's economy.
Marcon might still win in the short-term race. A major plank in his plans to transform the country as an up-Start nation is to emerge in pole position among nations that embrace A.I and New Technology to which he has committed an initial sum of 1.5 Billion Euros.
The Impact of A.I for those who have embraced it - both nations and Businesses- has been virtually immediate. It is just for a country to show the commitment and provide the required resources.
DYSFUNCTIONAL IDENTITIES
Dysfunctional identities occur when people do not have a uniting shared identity and poor peer identity. Many times, the identities are divided along narratives of ethnic divides, which widen the gap created among members of a community who may align along different ethnic backgrounds.
Wrong narratives are corrected by introducing a new set of narratives that are not established along ethnic division that will create a shared identity and common sense of purpose/struggle.
An example of the correction of a harmful/dysfunctional identity and why is seen in a paper titled: ['Tribe or Nation? Nation-Building and Public Goods in Kenya versus Tanzania''][1] written by Edward Miguel of the University of California at Berkeley
It states in part: 'Tanzanian leader Julius Nyerere forcefully downplayed the role of ethnic affiliation in public life and instead emphasized a single Tanzanian national'. Going further the text adds: 'the potential for [ethnic] conflict in Tanzania has … been muted by the near universal use of Kiswahili, which replaced English as the country’s official language'.
Still on this Paper Prof Collier explains Nyerere fostered unity by ensuring citizens were posted to work in ethnic locations different to the one they belonged to and the Presidency was rotated among Christians and Muslims.
These are moves that corrected the harmful identities of ethnic divides in Tanzania and saw it emerge as a more united country even in ethnically divided areas.
As Sir Collier revealed the management of Public goods (an example was given with wells) saw Tanzanians who were ethnically divided were in a better position to manage them than the Kenyans.
PEER ESTEEM
Peer Esteem is basically the commendation and approval you receive from those within your Social Network. Adequate Peer Esteem can result to self-esteem (personal approval) and probably there wouldn't be the latter without it unless your values are largely and deliberately different to those of your peers.
SCALE ECONOMIES OF VIOLENCE ALSO OBTAINABLE IN MICRO-SOCIETIES WITHIN CITIES WHERE RESIDENTS BAND TOGETHER TO FORM COMMUNITY LEADERSHIP
On how a state is developed from anarchy to a centralised state the same process is noticeable at a micro-society level within the larger society such as a Residents association.
When a Resident body's is initially formed we usually have strong but unproductive (residents banding together and reaching out to others, expressing a desire/the need to form a body and/or applying for permission from the authority to form the association.
With that over weak and unsure residents are unsettled and sometimes sent packing if they cannot stand their grounds while the stronger tenants band together and seek to acquire more or choice property in the area (e.g control of shops, cafes etc) and to assert their influence within the community.
The resident body - becoming more centralised - then seeks to devise a tax system in the form of ground maintenance collections. which they use to run an organisation and where possible employ staff.
Contract enforcement and rule of law sets in (with the memorandum and or Articles of Association drawn up) as Committee members who are volunteers are expected to contribute their time and resources towards making the body grow with a promise that they would be rewarded in future when the body is more financially viable.
Infrastructure is invested in such as a community hall, shops and stalls etc to enhance trade and generate more money for the body.
As the resident body gets the main, original body concedes power to smaller areas under a subordinate leadership.
Some of the six steps of development as taught in the course fail to happen for reasons such as fear that enough residents won't pay the grounds maintenance fee; fear of being sent packing by residents during elections sees them embark on short term project.
corruption is a subset of violence since aspects of violence as put forth in the lecture would be consider as corruption and only undertaken by leaders who engage in this menace.
Scale Economies of Violence have always included acts carried out by ill-informed corrupt leaders who seek to use force rather than legitimate means to gain an advantage over their subjects. The use of institutions by leaders to bypass the law in the name of executing their duties is a clear example of violence being shrouded via corrupt acts of governance.
WHEN IT BECOMES INEVITABLE TO MAKE THE TRANSITION FROM AUTOCRATIC TO DEMOCRATIC RULE
Prof Collier’s notes indicate that democratic rule brings about an inclusive state not available under autocratic rule.
The unwillingness to make a state inclusive could see leaders being faced with the risks of protests which could be costly and lead to failure of their regimes.
An example is seen in the text where 'Ceausescu on the balcony in the square in Bucharest' failed to embrace democratic rule early enough and lost his life.
Another example is seen in Nigeria which has had a history of protests only checked by the ushering in of democratic rule.
Examples are seen in the transition from military rule to democracy from dictator Gen Sani Abacha (who experienced protests under his regime due to the non-actualisation of June 12, 1993 election) to his Military successor General Abdulsalami Abubakar to an eventually democratically elected, President Olusegun Obasanjo of a more inclusive Nigeria state.
Hence it is right time to shift from Autocratic to Democratic power as the quest for inclusiveness makes autocratic leadership increasingly difficult and no longer beneficial and the failure to do so could have dire consequences.
On a final note the inevitability of transiting from Autocratic to Democratic rule can be seen in the text [DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT AND CONFLICT1][1] authored by Paul Collier and Dominic Rohner which posits that democratic rule is a 'strategy for promoting internal peace...'
The text further notes that 'democratic accountability lowers incentives for rebellion'. and 'constrains the technical possibilities of government repression, seeing the latter enhances rebellion.
CONCLUSION
The beauty in this course is that it shows clearly that prosperity does not just happen. Then it provides a glimpse into the chronical order of economic development that brings prosperity about within a society, or as it may be, a social enterprise.
All leaders, especially national leaders should have a basic grasp of these elements and theories.
(being part of contributions and final Assignment by the author during the Oxford university’s From Poverty to Prosperity: Understanding Economic development course)
Below is the picture chart submitted for the Final Assignment
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Anthony Olabode Ayodele is A Chartered PR Practitioner. Obtaining his BSc in Business Management (Hons) from Plymouth University Ayodele is also World Bank, Harvard and Oxford University trained. The CEO of the Public Relations and Digital marketing outfit, Ideas Concepts and Products, is a global, well read and sought for, Problem Solving Consultant (PSC). He is based in London, United Kingdom.
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